Eventually, the oil will run out: What to do in the meantime?
By Dan Swartz
Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis
By Jerremy Leggett, Published by Portobello Books, 322 pp
As Al Gore poignantly stated in An Inconvenient Truth, we so often go from denial to despair without doing anything in between; and this is how I feel while reading most environmental books. On the other hand, Jeremy Leggett's latest book, Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis, while depressing about the state of the world, does manage to offer significant hope — assuming, of course, that there enough political can be found.
The introductory chapter is written as a Daniel Quinn-like parable, but with Douglas Adams-type witty irony and the clarity of a Stephen J. Gould essay. The majority of the book deals with the question of peak oil and the debate between 'early peakers' and 'late peakers.' And while no one needs a book telling them that that oil will run out sooner or later, if you want to understand the science and economics behind the forecasts and debates, then this is an excellent book to give you a good grounding.
When I read about the peak oil debate, my first reaction is: "Good! Let the oil run out tomorrow, and then maybe people will finally begin to tackle seriously the challenges of renewable energy and energy conservation." But then I start thinking about my Gore-Tex jacket, shoes, oven cleaner, plastic water pipes, and a million other oil-derivative products that I use every day.
In his book, Leggett lays out five premises:
- It will be possible to replace oil, gas and coal completely with a plentiful supply of renewable energy, and faster than most people think.
- The shortfall between current expectations of oil supply and the availability of oil and other sources of energy is too great for renewable solutions to be implemented without economic and environmental trauma.
- Renewable energy, along with energy efficiency, will begin to replace oil and gas with explosive rapidity.
- Outmoded energy-producing systems will turn toward coal, the consequences of which will ultimately determine whether or not economies and ecosystems will survive the global warming threat.
- There is much that people can do to encourage the use of renewables and to ameliorate the worst global energy excesses.
It's not a question of when oil production will peak and decline, but of what will happen when it does. The world might leap to coal or nuclear options, or others even worse. Burning most of the remaining oil, or even a fraction of the coal, will destroy our economies and the environment; however, there are viable and quick solutions that even some of the world's worst polluters have not failed to recognise.
Shell's scenario planners declared in 2001 that renewables have the potential to provide power to a world of 10 billion people with ease, even if per capita use increases. For example, covering just 600 square kilometres of the Sahara Desert with photovoltaic cells would match the output of all of the world's existing power stations; Texas, North Dakota and Kansas have enough wind-power potential to meet the energy demands of the entire United States; and, all of non-electrified sub-Saharan Africa could be provided with small-scale solar for less than 70 percent of what OECD countries spend on annual subsidies to fossil-fuel industries. (Annual government subsidies to gas, oil and coal companies amount to more than USD 235 billion!)
In 2005, a ship travelled to the North Pole for the first time without the aid of an ice breaker. Time to act is obviously short, but not impossible. If you want your children to live in a world were there is still a polar icecap practice sustainable consumption by helping others who would not otherwise help themselves or the planet. For the next birthday, wedding or anniversary, give smart. Insulate your friends' or relatives' windows, doors and pipes; or give energy-efficient light bulbs, A+ energy- and water-efficiency appliances, or extension cords with a master 'off' switch. These days, many appliances don't even come with an 'off' button.
