Mountain vs. man
In spite of Russian scientists' unwillingness to back global consensus on anthropogenic global warning, experts from the Azau glaciological research station admit that the Elbrus' glaciers have recently been melting at record speed. "Global climate change shows through intensive local and regional differences," station head Alexander Oleynikov explained, adding that while climate change might not be greatly felt in the region by 2014, the growing number of foggy days could quite literally cast a shadow over the Winter Games.
Also worrisome is that 'avalanches one on top of the other' are becoming less of a political allegory and a more frequent reality. More than 50 visitors have been killed around Elbrus since 2002. In May an avalanche swept through a regular overnight camp, claiming the lives of several Japanese mountaineers.
"In the past, avalanches were unlikely between December and February, but the danger is now present through the entire winter," Oleynikov warned. Besides, the unpredictability and treacherousness of avalanches now pose a threat to those outside the climbing community. Right near the research station, two among a group of students preparing to celebrate New Year's Eve in 2005 were whisked from their dormitory window when an avalanche veered from its usual path.
Glaciers, however, are becoming shorter and thinner, allowing new passages for tumbling snow, scientist Natalia Volodycheva told journalists visiting the Azau station in August. The trip, organised by Green Horizon and the Russian Regional Environmental Centre, aimed to provide journalists with knowledge and skills for covering climate change.
Investors and owners of the new tourist facilities, as well as their clients and visitors, have not the slightest idea of the threats they are facing, said Volodycheva. Hussein, for example, has invested more than USD 100,000 in his Cheget hotel. The investment has so far paid off, even with the tourist season limited to three winter months and two summer months, but the Balkar businessman remains undaunted about the prospects of being buried under snow. Assured that avalanches will continue to pass "to the side," Hussein is also confident that periodic state-financed, anti-avalanche bombardments will continue to guarantee his and the hotel's safety. "Indeed, these avalanches normally pass aside, but only when they're small," said Volodycheva.
The glaciologist warned that the new buildings under Cheget lie in a potentially catastrophic danger zone, and that current protection measures are wholly inadequate. The only hotel at the moment with effective anti-avalanche protection was built in 1968, and is protected by the new buildings around it, Volodycheva added.
Hussein, like most hotel owners in the region, has no property insurance. "If something happens, I'll rely on my neighbours. They're my best insurance," he said, and not without good reason. Neighbours helped out when Hussein's cafe was destroyed by fire in 2005 Hussein's, but it is difficult to imagine what help would be available if everyone were struck at once.
