Behavioural change is necessary to reduce transport's harmful environmental effects
By Pavel Antonov
I felt a strangely awkward sensation last spring when removing the winter tyres from my car. I realised for the first time in my decade as a driver that my winter tyres hadn't touched any snow from November to April. And I couldn't merely attribute this to good luck of not needing to drive when it snowed in Budapest: it was simply because the 2006/07 winter was warm, brief and utterly without snowfall. It was almost as if winter didn't happen at all. 'Welcome to the subtropics,' I thought, speculating meanwhile that I could even take the chance of no longer buying winter tyres if this sort of weather trend continues.
The link between transport and climate change has been suggested over the years on numerous occasions. The business community is keen to tout new technologies as the most likely remedy to the problem, while activists are recommending behavioural change at all levels, from individuals to international corporations.
But radical technological changes are not on the immediate horizon, argues Jack Short, secretary general of the International Transport Forum (ITF). The organisation headed by Short emerged as a result of the European Conference of the Ministers of Transport, founded in 1953, and has chosen climate change as the topic of focus for its 2008 summit, the first to be held under its new name.
There are many long-term possibilities, including electric power trains, fuel cells and hydrogen, but only battery-powered cars appear among these options as likely to be commercially viable before 2030, Short explains. Nevertheless, the potential from improving existing technologies can deliver up to a 30 percent reduction in CO2 emissions, he adds.
Short also expresses doubts as to how much transport users will change their behaviour. This, he says, is "the most difficult challenge." Whether it's changing to more fuel-efficient modes, travelling less or using more efficient vehicles, experience and success are limited, he asserts.
So what's the best approach to take in solving transport-related climate problems? After all, policies change, says Short. A survey of existing transport-sector greenhouse gas reduction policies identified over 400 abatement policies introduced or under development in the ITF's 51 member countries. According to Short, the measures analysed might cut 700 million tonnes from annual CO2 emissions by 2015 — just over half the projected increase in emissions between 1990 and 2010. These measures include a CO2-related fuel tax, CO2-based vehicle taxes, incentives for alternative fuel vehicles, urban transport initiatives, biofuels promotion, and traditional transport policies like modal shift policies, investment, better traffic management and speed-reducing safety measures.
This promising-looking package might, however, be difficult to run, particularly in CEE countries hoping catch up economically with the West. It's natural early on in the economic growth cycle to be deeply concerned about the economy, and less concerned about the environment. But Short also points to CEE's advantages, beginning with the opportunity to address the environment at earlier stages of development than in the West.
"In many ways, CEE countries are accepting the best technology because [today's] vehicle standards are perfect," says Short. "They're also accepting high standards of appraisal for investment. There are directives on investment that require environmental appraisals."
Regardless of changing policies, investment strategies and technologies, climate change has immediate impacts that could soon lead, voluntarily or involuntarily, to behavioural changes. Put into perspective, a useless pair of winter tires should be the least of my worries.
