Sweden pursues emissions targets with '20-20-20' vision
By Goran A. Persson
In the next few years, political decisions lie ahead regarding detailed formulation of the EU's so-called "20-20-20" targets and accompanying EU directives. Talks on new international post-2012 climate agreement are imminent.
The EU targets involve reducing emissions of greenhouse gases by 20 percent, increasing the proportion of renewable energy by 20 percent and improving energy efficiency by 20 percent — all by the year 2020.
To achieve the EU targets will require large investments in electricity production, particularly renewable energy, and in electricity networks. To replace 20 percent of electricity production from coal-fired power plants with wind, concentrated solar and bio-energy is an ambitious but realistic goal. Contributions from wave and photovoltaic power will be small initially but continue to grow. It will be necessary to speed up permitting processes for electricity production plants and networks. As wind is an intermittent source of electricity, Norwegian and Swedish hydropower will be most valuable in regulating supply. An extensive European network will be necessary to distribute electricity with wind power at peak levels.
After 2020 carbon dioxide 'capture and storage' (CCS) can provide important reductions at coal-fired power plants. New nuclear energy is also important toward achieving a carbon dioxide-free EU electricity system by around the year 2050. The Swedish government has recently removed a ban on new nuclear to replace existing reactors.
Sweden's transport sector is highly dependent on fossil fuels, and a number of steps have to be taken. There is a great potential for reduced carbon dioxide emissions and increased efficiency with plug-in hybrids and electric cars. One million cars consume about 10 TWh fuels. With plug-in hybrids that figure would be reduced to 2 TWh fuels and 2 TWh electricity; 8 TWh are replaced by 2 TWh electricity — a fairly marginal increase of electricity consumption in a country. A realistic figure is that 15 percent of the car fleet could be plug-in and/or electric by 2020.
Other solutions must be introduced for heavy-duty vehicles. A wide range of biofuels could be made available, such as biodiesel, biogas, dimethyl ether (DME), methanol and ethanol. Volvo has declared that engines for all these fuels can be made available.
The steps described above, together with a 10 percent blend of biofuels in gasoline and diesel and reduced fuel consumption from all cars, will mean a 20-30 per cent reduction of greenhouse gases from vehicles.
Fuel cells with hydrogen could be important after 2020. A successful development of CCS will make it possible to use natural gas as a carbon dioxide-free source of hydrogen.
Buildings are responsible for a considerable amount of energy use within the EU. New houses built according to low-energy and passive house standards use very little energy, but to reduce emissions from the construction sector, existing buildings have to be addressed. A 20 percent reduction of energy use by 2020 requires that more than one-third of existing buildings will have to use 50 percent less energy. Carbon dioxide emissions in the sector can be reduced further by the use of solar energy, biofuels and heat pumps.
The industry sector will also have to contribute to better energy efficiency and reduced carbon dioxide emissions. A continuous improvement of processes and replacement of oil by natural gas, biofuels and electricity will do the job.
Sweden will occupy the EU chair during the second half of 2009 when the important climate meeting in Copenhagen takes place. To set an example and to be at the forefront of the EU, the Swedish Government has decided on additional targets to those decided by the EU. Carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced by 40 per cent by the year 2020, the transport sector will be rid of fossil fuels in 2030, and Sweden as a whole shall be carbon dioxide neutral by 2050.
The cost of achieving the climate change policy objectives set by the EU will probably be very high; it is therefore important that the choices made ensure that climate change policy objectives are achieved at the lowest possible cost. Focusing on keeping costs to a minimum may be the very thing that makes it all possible to achieve these goals.
The best solution then is, as far as possible, to base energy and climate change policy on so-called market-based instruments, such as emission charges, tradable emission permits and perhaps certificates for renewable energy in electricity production and in the transport sector.
Can we meet the EU targets in 2020? Yes, we can!
Goran A. Persson is a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences. With a scientific background in air pollution, he has a Ph.D. in chemical engineering from Chalmers University of Technology. Persson has served in several leading positions in the Swedish Environment Protection Agency, e. g. Director of Research and Deputy Director General with responsibility for long-term planning and strategy development.
